New analysis outlines four potential scenarios for the US labor force and steps business leaders, policymakers, and educators should take now

NEW YORK, Sept. 15, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — AI is spreading through US workplaces at remarkable speed. A new report from The Conference Board examines how the technology could reshape the US labor force and what leaders can do now to prepare.

The report identifies four potential scenarios:

1. Gradual augmentation: AI primarily helps workers rather than replaces them.
2. Concentrated gains: AI unevenly boosts productivity for certain industries and occupations.
3. Massive displacement: AI leads to substantial job losses across a broad range of occupations.
4. Uneven disruption: AI displaces workers in certain occupations while supporting job growth in others.

While the long-term effects remain uncertain, the transformation is already underway. Through the end of 2025, about 41% of US workers and 18% of US firms reported using AI, and The Conference Board projects that within three years, 60–70% of jobs in the cognitive workforce could involve collaboration between humans and AI, compared with just 15–25% involving human-only work. Yet despite AI’s rapid adoption and demonstrated productivity gains in some settings, broad effects on employment and wages have so far been limited and difficult to measure.

Given the speed of adoption, the report urges business leaders, policymakers, and educators to prepare now by strengthening workforce skills, improving data and early-warning indicators, and ensuring public systems can respond if displacement accelerates.

“AI is advancing too quickly for business leaders and policymakers to wait until its labor-market effects become clear,” said David K. Young, President of The CEO Center at The Conference Board. “The challenge is not to predict with certainty whether AI will create jobs, eliminate them, or fundamentally change how they are performed. It is to prepare for each possibility. That means better data, stronger workforce training, and systems that can respond quickly if disruption accelerates.”

Recommendations
While the labor market effects of AI are uncertain, waiting to take action until the outlook is clear could leave policymakers and CEOs ill-prepared to respond to quickly changing conditions. As a result, stakeholders should take steps now to prepare workers to take advantage of potential opportunities and remain resilient against potential disruptions.

• Improve data collection and establish early-warning indicators: Recognizing that many existing datasets may not capture the effects of AI quickly or granularly enough to aid decision-making, policymakers should take steps to improve data collection.
    
• Invest in worker training and education: AI will change the skills required in existing jobs, as well as the mix of occupations demanded by employers. Given the pace of change, education and training systems must become more responsive to technological advances and shifting employment conditions, requiring action from policymakers, educators, and CEOs.
    
• Modernize unemployment insurance and public-benefit systems: Even a concentrated or temporary increase in displacement could strain unemployment insurance and other public-benefit programs. Policymakers should improve these systems before a major shock occurs rather than attempting to build capacity during a crisis.

About The CEO Center
The CEO Center, founded in 1942 as the Committee for Economic Development, is the public policy center of The Conference Board. Members of The CEO Center are chief executive officers, key executives of leading companies, and university Presidents. Collectively, they represent 30+ industries, over five million employees, and more than $2T in annual revenues. The nonprofit, nonpartisan, business-led policy center advances business-informed policy recommendations to strengthen the US economy and advance the country’s long-term prosperity.
TCB.org/CEO-Center

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the global, Member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization.
TCB.org  l  Learn about Membership

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SOURCE The Conference Board